Tom2425
0xc6304ad83faaa411d81c44877ddeb648747837c5
- Realised P&L
- $0.61
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $7.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.182 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.030 | $1.52 | +$0.53 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.025 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.545 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.481 | 0.412 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.132 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.080 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $0.45 | −$0.55 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET · Down | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-09-11? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.75at 0.161Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
- +$4.48at 0.128Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$4.33at 0.110Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.95at 0.128Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Norway?
- +$2.77at 0.187Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 00:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4809997869 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 15:06 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-09-11? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 13:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $1.56 |
| 08-23 13:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 14:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.46 |
| 08-22 14:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 14:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.54 |
| 08-22 14:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 00:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 00:33 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.228 | $1.03 |
| 08-20 00:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 00:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.325 | $1.59 |
| 08-20 00:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $2.36 |
| 08-20 00:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 22:09 | Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next? | SELL | 0.221 | $1.30 |