micromen
0xc5ec460c660b19a2c0a3bf2032ffed7ee5128417
- Realised P&L
- $-2.52
- Volume
- $259.23
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $2.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.618 | 0.621 | $2.62 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.67at 0.327Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$2.57at 0.529Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?
- +$2.12at 0.520Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
- +$1.92at 0.610Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
- +$0.98at 0.667Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 08:37 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.6179999957 | $2.61 |
| 09-24 17:52 | Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.7599999843 | $1.94 |
| 08-04 09:51 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.6299998859 | $1.38 |
| 07-30 18:09 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.84 |
| 07-04 11:23 | Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6599999865 | $1.95 |
| 06-28 03:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5161426898 | $2.81 |
| 06-02 13:58 | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.6799998269 | $1.10 |
| 05-17 13:51 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.32 | $1.27 |
| 05-15 10:19 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY | 0.389999874 | $1.64 |
| 05-11 10:12 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? | BUY | 0.6999995196 | $1.02 |
| 05-03 11:45 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.6999999243 | $1.85 |
| 03-05 13:39 | Pelicans vs. Kings | BUY | 0.35999988 | $1.56 |
| 03-04 15:50 | Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.30 |
| 03-03 13:45 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.26 |
| 03-02 11:19 | Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | BUY | 0.2599999447 | $2.54 |