Tropicalrambler
0xc57eeba00bf4fafa2eb5d95602d074ef2d29f19a
- Realised P&L
- $-13.24
- Volume
- $168.80
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $34.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.360 | 1.000 | $13.89 | +$8.89 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 1.000 | $7.84 | +$3.84 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.209 | $7.76 | −$2.24 |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? · Yes | 0.960 | 1.000 | $5.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.033 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.004 | $0.06 | −$9.94 |
| Will Russia join the Board of Peace? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump say "Golden Age of America" during WEF Address on January 21? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.48at 0.130Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$1.51at 0.570Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?
- +$0.21at 0.949Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$-0.68at 0.340No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?
- +$-1.00at 0.780Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-21 13:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999541 | $4.00 |
| 01-21 13:19 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0789999325 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 13:15 | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 13:12 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 01-21 13:11 | Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 01-21 13:07 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 01-21 13:06 | Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0546084082 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 12:58 | Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 01-21 12:52 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 12:52 | Will Trump say "Golden Age of America" during WEF Address on January 21? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 12:50 | Will Russia join the Board of Peace? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 00:49 | US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 11-20 03:10 | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | BUY | 0.9489997775 | $4.00 |
| 11-18 19:41 | Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 11-18 19:37 | Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? | BUY | 0.5699999059 | $2.00 |