0xC54727ccc40c332c8408e2951aB2949C9DA97404-1773609738274
0xc54727ccc40c332c8408e2951ab2949c9da97404
- Realised P&L
- $13.96
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $25.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.32at 0.165GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.41at 0.257Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.70at 0.260Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?
- +$3.20at 0.680Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
- +$2.80at 0.280Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 10:34 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $7.37 |
| 07-01 23:22 | Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 13:49 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $19.64 |
| 06-19 17:21 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.118 | $2.36 |
| 06-19 17:20 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.35 |
| 06-11 23:04 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 06-10 13:01 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 19:46 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $3.10 |
| 04-29 00:48 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.595 | $5.95 |
| 04-26 13:58 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.56 |
| 04-24 01:44 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.35 | $2.54 |
| 04-22 18:33 | Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 04-22 18:28 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.15 |
| 04-22 18:17 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.74 |
| 04-22 18:16 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.40 |