PollyForge
0xc5403a67309b34f5936e429568bccf02726df00d
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $3.94M
- Markets traded
- 16,014
- Open portfolio
- $463.34
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16,014
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.028Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$1.9kat 0.013Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$1.9kat 0.021Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.7kat 0.694Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$1.1kat 0.048Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 17:02 | Will UNABOMBER win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.45 |
| 09-03 17:02 | Will The Odyssey win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 09-03 17:00 | Will Elise Mertens win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-03 16:36 | Will Benjamin Šeško (Man Utd) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.28 |
| 09-03 16:15 | Will Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.12 |
| 09-03 16:12 | Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 09-03 16:04 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 09-03 15:57 | Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.18 | $7.20 |
| 09-03 15:57 | Will Marcus Rashford (Man Utd) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 09-03 15:57 | Will Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 09-03 15:57 | Will Alexander Isak (Liverpool) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.40 |
| 09-03 15:51 | Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.55 |
| 09-03 15:39 | Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election? | SELL | 0.41 | $6.15 |
| 09-03 15:34 | Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #2 song this week? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-03 15:29 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.29 |