melanie58
0xc4e6a76c2ea2f2a77316edc6adce9fe22c4f3cfd
- Realised P&L
- $-58.89
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $68.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.715 | $28.61 | +$0.60 |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? · No | 0.690 | 0.640 | $15.11 | −$1.18 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.945 | $14.32 | +$0.83 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.695 | $10.56 | −$0.53 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.48at 0.730Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 27?
- +$4.71at 0.680Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$4.18at 0.780Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 22?
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April?
- +$1.63at 0.570Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:17 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999479 | $11.33 |
| 01-31 14:00 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? | BUY | 0.9819999998 | $23.75 |
| 01-30 17:13 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.20 |
| 01-30 14:42 | Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $21.89 |
| 01-30 12:31 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.21 |
| 12-30 10:37 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.84 |
| 12-29 20:38 | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.22 |
| 12-29 20:38 | Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.02 |
| 12-29 19:10 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9869999998 | $62.19 |
| 10-31 16:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.20 |
| 10-31 15:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.15 |
| 10-30 18:51 | Will XRP reach $3.30 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $36.21 |
| 09-29 12:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.01 |
| 09-29 01:01 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9769999988 | $12.60 |
| 09-29 00:40 | Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.63 |