0xc4dbab05fa3c413ddfab32480be1473bf9779506
- Realised P&L
- $65.73
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $107.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? · No | 0.800 | 0.855 | $106.88 | +$6.88 |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.011 | $0.22 | −$1.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.34at 0.531Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
- +$38.72at 0.730Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$36.11at 0.213Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$34.73at 0.140Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$34.06at 0.190Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 14:13 | Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 00:06 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 00:04 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5749999871 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 20:55 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2174999853 | $10.00 |
| 06-22 14:37 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 14:35 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.989 | $46.35 |
| 06-19 00:08 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? | BUY | 0.4452315496 | $10.00 |
| 06-10 09:50 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 20:17 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 07:16 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17? | SELL | 0.991 | $22.41 |
| 05-12 07:51 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17? | BUY | 0.4399999823 | $9.95 |
| 05-08 21:08 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 05-03 22:02 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.972 | $7.04 |
| 05-03 22:01 | Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? | SELL | 0.998 | $37.05 |
| 04-20 10:25 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26? | SELL | 0.994 | $65.74 |