PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

pmlp

0xc3a263872e00ccb02ca18e4b14e070db6399d0bd

Realised P&L
$-112.79
Volume
$199.5k
Markets traded
1,798
Open portfolio
$57.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,798
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2700.225$4.95$0.99
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes0.2440.444$4.43+$1.99
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · No0.2200.145$3.91$2.03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2100.115$3.22$2.66
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.075$3.19$2.76
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.4900.525$3.15+$0.21
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.5000.470$2.82$0.18
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No0.5600.525$2.76$0.18
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · No0.3600.460$2.53+$0.55
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · No0.1500.055$2.20$3.80
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? · Yes0.3100.235$2.11$0.68
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes0.3800.275$2.06$0.79
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes0.3900.275$1.93$0.80
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? · Yes0.3600.345$1.90$0.08
Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? · Yes0.3600.345$1.90$0.08

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 18:31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?SELL0.22$1.76
08-02 11:52Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?SELL0.47$2.35
08-02 08:43Iran full airspace closure by August 15?SELL0.12$0.99
07-31 17:27Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.23$1.38
07-31 15:54Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?SELL0.65$3.25
07-31 15:44Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?SELL0.58$3.19
07-31 15:44Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.36$5.58
07-30 13:56Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?SELL0.15$0.30
07-29 07:31Will Solana dip to $70 in July?SELL0.23$1.38
07-29 04:12Will XRP reach $1.20 in July?SELL0.04$0.23
07-28 22:21Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.54$2.70
07-27 15:48Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.12$3.00
07-26 20:29US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?SELL0.45$3.15
07-26 20:28Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?SELL0.594$2.97
07-26 20:28Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.61$3.66
Trader pmlp · PolyBot