magicbed
0xc37be87e51c77b42a8651402ca608d748d299b85
- Realised P&L
- $-495.16
- Volume
- $227.6k
- Markets traded
- 348
- Open portfolio
- $587.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded348
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$790.10at 0.079Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$701.96at 0.045Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
- +$665.60at 0.121Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$330.00at 0.175Kristi Noem out by March 31?
- +$282.80at 0.030Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 08:42 | Will Trump say "Portland" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.48 |
| 02-24 03:19 | Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.509 | $1.04 |
| 02-23 21:27 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.03 |
| 02-23 14:41 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | SELL | 0.7 | $2.44 |
| 02-23 13:37 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | SELL | 0.44 | $21.56 |
| 02-21 20:33 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.15 |
| 02-21 19:58 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.965 | $640.36 |
| 02-21 19:41 | Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.38 |
| 02-19 18:47 | Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $13.50 |
| 02-19 00:51 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | SELL | 0.012414298 | $1.01 |
| 02-19 00:02 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.931 | $52.64 |
| 02-18 23:40 | Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.704 | $72.48 |
| 02-18 16:45 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.59 |
| 02-18 14:31 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of February? | BUY | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 02-17 22:18 | Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $10.84 |