Xplo
0xc32e50649d6d42d6673673503bb8bfb8172223bd
- Realised P&L
- $-40.75
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $31.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.525 | $10.50 | −$2.10 |
| Will AlloX FDV be above $65M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.520 | $10.40 | +$3.40 |
| Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.340 | 0.510 | $10.20 | +$3.40 |
| Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.040 | $0.78 | −$5.82 |
| Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? · Yes | 0.785 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.80 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.99at 0.730US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$36.71at 0.730Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$33.06at 0.751Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$22.11at 0.760 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$17.82at 0.835Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 16:46 | Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 10-26 13:10 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 10-25 06:09 | Will Olivia Wilde be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.49 | $2.57 |
| 10-24 21:01 | Will "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? | SELL | 0.7559433601 | $19.75 |
| 10-22 14:03 | Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.67 |
| 10-22 12:19 | Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 10-22 04:05 | Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 10-21 05:24 | Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 10-21 01:48 | Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 10-20 15:59 | Will AVAX reach $14 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.10 |
| 10-19 00:10 | Will "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 10-18 04:17 | Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 10-17 21:03 | Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-17 19:47 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $0.87 |
| 05-01 12:28 | Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? | BUY | 0.7851524084 | $49.80 |