PolyBot

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Traders

Valdan

0xc2d25fa02896c45a3ebe230e74853dfc5247de25

Realised P&L
$-40.28
Volume
$1.5k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$84.72

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No0.9500.931$39.20$0.80
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes0.8500.875$30.88+$0.88
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7600.735$9.67$0.33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7200.715$4.97$0.03
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00$5.00
Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$20.00
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00$8.00
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France? · No0.7360.000$0.00$20.00
Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-21 11:12Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?BUY0.95$40.00
08-21 11:11Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?BUY0.8499999986$30.00
08-21 11:06Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.7199998618$5.00
08-21 11:06Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?BUY0.0216899284$5.00
08-21 11:05NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7599999878$10.00
03-19 14:22Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?BUY0.2699999811$8.00
03-12 13:19France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?BUY0.9039999069$8.62
03-12 13:18Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.7890002973$50.00
03-12 13:16Iran leadership change by April 30?BUY0.3399999633$5.00
09-08 20:35Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?BUY0.9549999152$8.00
09-08 20:34Xi Jinping out in 2025?BUY0.9399999996$50.00
09-08 20:33Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France?BUY0.020242915$20.00
09-08 20:33Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France?BUY0.7363184026$20.00
08-29 12:50Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?BUY0.9299999907$1.00