Valdan
0xc2d25fa02896c45a3ebe230e74853dfc5247de25
- Realised P&L
- $-40.28
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $84.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.950 | 0.931 | $39.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.875 | $30.88 | +$0.88 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.735 | $9.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.720 | 0.715 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France? · No | 0.736 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.37at 0.789Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$3.19at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$0.92at 0.904France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$0.38at 0.955Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$0.08at 0.930Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 11:12 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.95 | $40.00 |
| 08-21 11:11 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8499999986 | $30.00 |
| 08-21 11:06 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7199998618 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 11:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.0216899284 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 11:05 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999878 | $10.00 |
| 03-19 14:22 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.2699999811 | $8.00 |
| 03-12 13:19 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.9039999069 | $8.62 |
| 03-12 13:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.7890002973 | $50.00 |
| 03-12 13:16 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 09-08 20:35 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.9549999152 | $8.00 |
| 09-08 20:34 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $50.00 |
| 09-08 20:33 | Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France? | BUY | 0.020242915 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 20:33 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France? | BUY | 0.7363184026 | $20.00 |
| 08-29 12:50 | Bayrou out as French PM by September 30? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |