m1a
0xc2a658f89d35ba50bd54a452b6e616dc4923417a
- Realised P&L
- $-603.34
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $390.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.376 | 0.460 | $292.72 | +$53.19 |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.729 | 0.170 | $98.26 | −$322.85 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$410.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$186.83at 0.240Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$155.18at 0.820Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?
- +$104.93at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$56.05at 0.410Switzerland vs. Italy - who will advance?
- +$42.00at 0.470Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 09:17 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.376 | $239.53 |
| 01-14 06:40 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.7285640138 | $421.11 |
| 01-14 06:24 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.24 | $59.00 |
| 01-13 17:02 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $410.49 |
| 11-18 11:45 | Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $30.64 |
| 11-18 11:41 | Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $646.73 |
| 10-27 12:33 | Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.47 | $141.00 |
| 10-27 12:32 | Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | SELL | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 06-25 08:03 | Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | BUY | 0.974 | $97.40 |
| 11-06 03:01 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.399 | $192.67 |
| 11-06 01:41 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.71 | $192.67 |
| 11-05 17:22 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6099999988 | $165.53 |
| 11-05 16:56 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.406 | $91.85 |
| 11-05 06:57 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3889999985 | $88.00 |
| 11-04 16:40 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.581 | $161.69 |