0xc287D8A7660765Ad8523d96d85157B0806E8A70A-1773649201327
0xc287d8a7660765ad8523d96d85157b0806e8a70a
- Realised P&L
- $1.71
- Volume
- $94.15
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $4.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.595 | $1.82 | +$0.02 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.978 | $1.61 | +$0.01 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.165 | $0.81 | −$1.39 |
| Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs · Paper Rex | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.97at 0.487US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
- +$1.73at 0.560Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.72at 0.430US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$1.27at 0.592Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?
- +$0.34at 0.940Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:47 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? | BUY | 0.9739999951 | $1.60 |
| 10-09 02:38 | Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.669999965 | $2.30 |
| 09-21 02:45 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9689999304 | $1.10 |
| 09-15 02:24 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8629999727 | $1.90 |
| 09-07 02:58 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? | BUY | 0.9729999935 | $1.20 |
| 08-28 02:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999162 | $1.80 |
| 08-13 09:06 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.20 |
| 08-06 07:30 | Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.18 |
| 07-28 03:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.4869999589 | $1.87 |
| 07-20 06:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9869999963 | $2.16 |
| 07-13 03:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.9689999958 | $2.10 |
| 07-07 02:29 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999541 | $1.80 |
| 06-30 06:00 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699998408 | $5.18 |
| 06-22 09:43 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.9720160399 | $2.13 |
| 06-15 02:42 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999611 | $1.90 |