polnewlud
0xc239c8f58f88d023ed82291f8e317764dede6459
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $97.2k
- Markets traded
- 817
- Open portfolio
- $162.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded817
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$981.32at 0.135Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 12?
- +$433.90at 0.478Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 12?
- +$415.36at 0.304Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
- +$192.94at 0.437Solana Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
- +$176.72at 0.650Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 04:56 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.989 | $19.78 |
| 10-01 00:39 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.92 | $19.32 |
| 09-15 01:10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $19.74 |
| 09-15 00:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $19.32 |
| 09-15 00:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 09-14 01:56 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-14 01:56 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.40 |
| 09-01 04:19 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 1? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-31 04:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 23°C on August 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-31 03:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 12°C on August 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.88 |
| 08-30 07:53 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-30 07:53 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-30 00:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on August 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-29 01:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $16.78 |
| 08-29 00:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.88 |