0xc1ea807db5f66b0a601f977804c403182eddf4c6
0xc1ea807db5f66b0a601f977804c403182eddf4c6
- Realised P&L
- $-2.26
- Volume
- $192.21
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $6.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $1.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.555 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · No | 0.764 | 0.796 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.575 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%? · No | 0.630 | 0.490 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.185 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.55at 0.220Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?
- +$1.86at 0.470Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?
- +$1.73at 0.542Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:06 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.763999945 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 23:00 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 14:38 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 21:19 | Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 17:06 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 20:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 00:15 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 15:13 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 07:12 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2189999542 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 23:11 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 14:15 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 06:15 | Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6739997843 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 10:07 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 02:06 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 18:05 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |