PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xc19AC10345e01A3C26a242B30064c17C3f6866f9-1771234204652

0xc19ac10345e01a3c26a242b30064c17c3f6866f9

Realised P&L
$0.40
Volume
$70.22
Markets traded
27
Open portfolio
$14.23

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded27
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample22 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9300.964$5.18+$0.18
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.9050.908$4.01+$0.01
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? · Yes0.9500.930$2.94$0.06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9100.935$2.05+$0.05
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes0.8500.035$0.04$0.96

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 19:41Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?BUY0.95$3.00
09-06 20:11Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?BUY0.9$2.00
09-05 16:21Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.68$1.97
09-05 11:11Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.6899999586$2.00
09-05 11:10Anthropic acquired before 2027?SELL0.969$1.07
09-05 11:10Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?SELL0.984$1.01
09-05 08:13Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?BUY0.9049999955$4.00
09-02 19:15Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?BUY0.929999993$4.00
07-03 12:45AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?BUY0.849999915$1.00
06-28 15:56Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.9099995859$2.00
06-24 08:26GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.115$0.13
06-19 21:35Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?BUY0.962$1.00
06-19 21:31GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.889999911$1.00
06-18 15:09Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?BUY0.68$2.00
06-18 15:07Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?SELL0.18$0.35