0xc19AC10345e01A3C26a242B30064c17C3f6866f9-1771234204652
0xc19ac10345e01a3c26a242b30064c17c3f6866f9
- Realised P&L
- $0.40
- Volume
- $70.22
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $14.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.964 | $5.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.905 | 0.908 | $4.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.930 | $2.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.935 | $2.05 | +$0.05 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.035 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.33at 0.430Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- +$0.93at 0.641Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?
- +$0.92at 0.689Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$0.88at 0.650Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?
- +$0.88at 0.650Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 19:41 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.00 |
| 09-06 20:11 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 09-05 16:21 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.68 | $1.97 |
| 09-05 11:11 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 09-05 11:10 | Anthropic acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.969 | $1.07 |
| 09-05 11:10 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | SELL | 0.984 | $1.01 |
| 09-05 08:13 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.9049999955 | $4.00 |
| 09-02 19:15 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.929999993 | $4.00 |
| 07-03 12:45 | AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 15:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9099995859 | $2.00 |
| 06-24 08:26 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.115 | $0.13 |
| 06-19 21:35 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 21:31 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 15:09 | Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 15:07 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.35 |