bgdogbit
0xc111007ea9cd67145d1b5ff347d2e3787382a00c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.99
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $277.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.408 | 0.660 | $105.04 | +$40.04 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.285 | 0.665 | $98.11 | +$56.11 |
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.305 | $25.22 | +$9.52 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.445 | 0.165 | $21.82 | −$37.09 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.115 | $19.48 | −$13.52 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.112 | $8.15 | +$0.85 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? · Yes | 0.735 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$236.02 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.61at 0.599Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
- +$75.48at 0.537US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
- +$72.12at 0.660Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?
- +$53.38at 0.650Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
- +$38.80at 0.675Will Russia join the Board of Peace?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 09:19 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.1003708248 | $7.30 |
| 09-25 09:17 | Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31? | BUY | 0.1898968329 | $15.70 |
| 09-25 09:14 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2846800354 | $42.00 |
| 09-25 09:09 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 09-25 09:07 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $81.00 |
| 09-01 01:58 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4454854035 | $58.91 |
| 09-01 01:56 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 01:52 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $53.34 |
| 08-14 14:41 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.6320987654 | $80.00 |
| 08-14 14:31 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.1674876787 | $20.00 |
| 07-16 05:29 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.408422857 | $65.00 |
| 07-16 05:24 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5943118317 | $34.46 |
| 06-20 08:48 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.5910447648 | $12.00 |
| 06-20 08:47 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $45.88 |
| 05-30 06:20 | Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6691301295 | $100.00 |