BasedJonStewart
0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $210.6k
- Markets traded
- 196
- Open portfolio
- $14.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded196
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.552US military action against Iran before July?
- +$2.2kat 0.259Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.825Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$1.3kat 0.523Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$945.99at 0.346Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 18:59 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7599999985 | $100.00 |
| 10-25 21:41 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3457842709 | $500.00 |
| 10-25 21:40 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.98 | $980.00 |
| 09-25 19:51 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $585.55 |
| 07-09 01:27 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.14 | $140.00 |
| 07-06 22:56 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17? | BUY | 0.89 | $36.49 |
| 05-11 17:46 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.31 |
| 05-11 17:46 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $36.32 |
| 04-28 14:06 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $27.08 |
| 04-12 19:11 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.9k |
| 04-07 22:47 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.405 | $162.00 |
| 04-07 17:05 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.4442240359 | $490.00 |
| 04-07 17:04 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.983 | $491.50 |
| 04-07 14:46 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.964 | $183.16 |
| 04-02 01:14 | Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.47 | $23.50 |