BasedJonStewart
0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1
- Realised P&L
- $9.4k
- Volume
- $217.2k
- Markets traded
- 193
- Open portfolio
- $12.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded193
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.962 | 0.979 | $3.8k | +$64.65 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.445 | $2.8k | +$597.15 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.741 | 0.855 | $2.5k | +$333.93 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.592 | 0.540 | $1.3k | −$122.43 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.441 | 0.195 | $635.23 | −$800.95 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.471 | 0.575 | $545.17 | +$98.84 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.022 | $458.90 | −$58.86 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.955 | $452.06 | +$82.84 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.552US military action against Iran before July?
- +$2.2kat 0.259Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.825Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$1.3kat 0.523Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$374.85at 0.712Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 01:27 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.14 | $140.00 |
| 07-06 22:56 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17? | BUY | 0.89 | $36.49 |
| 05-11 17:46 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.31 |
| 05-11 17:46 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $36.32 |
| 04-28 14:06 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $27.08 |
| 04-12 19:11 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.9k |
| 04-07 22:47 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.405 | $162.00 |
| 04-07 17:05 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.4442240359 | $490.00 |
| 04-07 17:04 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.983 | $491.50 |
| 04-07 14:46 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.964 | $183.16 |
| 04-02 01:14 | Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.47 | $23.50 |
| 04-02 01:07 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 03-10 00:15 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5918068293 | $1.4k |
| 03-10 00:15 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.942 | $1.4k |
| 03-03 23:46 | Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | BUY | 0.1099999956 | $21.49 |