PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

BasedJonStewart

0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1

Realised P&L
$9.4k
Volume
$217.2k
Markets traded
193
Open portfolio
$12.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded193
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration51.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.9620.979$3.8k+$64.65
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3500.445$2.8k+$597.15
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.7410.855$2.5k+$333.93
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.5920.540$1.3k$122.43
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.4410.195$635.23$800.95
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4710.575$545.17+$98.84
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0250.022$458.90$58.86
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.7800.955$452.06+$82.84
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00$140.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-09 01:27Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.14$140.00
07-06 22:56Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?BUY0.89$36.49
05-11 17:46Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?BUY0.16$2.31
05-11 17:46Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?BUY0.14$36.32
04-28 14:06Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?SELL0.46$27.08
04-12 19:11Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY0.98$1.9k
04-07 22:47US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.405$162.00
04-07 17:05Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.4442240359$490.00
04-07 17:04Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.983$491.50
04-07 14:46US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.964$183.16
04-02 01:14Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?BUY0.47$23.50
04-02 01:07US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.58$29.00
03-10 00:15Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.5918068293$1.4k
03-10 00:15Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?SELL0.942$1.4k
03-03 23:46Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?BUY0.1099999956$21.49