PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

pogb

0xc03fd7f514a6d52fe0b8291846717724f6c1249d

Realised P&L
$-34.8k
Volume
$5.43M
Markets traded
4,257
Open portfolio
$2.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,257
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3? · Up0.9360.950$285.00+$4.20
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · No0.7000.695$208.47$1.53
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.885$177.00$1.00
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? · No0.7300.715$135.06$2.83
Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa? · No0.3720.315$129.94$23.51
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? · No0.7000.645$129.00$11.00
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? · Yes0.5900.490$92.35$18.85
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes0.4000.385$77.00$3.00
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? · Yes0.3110.336$67.10+$4.90
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes0.3000.215$64.50$25.50
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? · Yes0.3800.315$63.00$13.00
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? · No0.4150.365$59.43$8.22
Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election? · No0.1900.145$58.00$18.00
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%? · Yes0.4600.285$56.98$35.02
Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election? · No0.4300.425$52.16$0.61

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 00:48Will Rafael Leao join Fenerbahce?SELL0.16$16.00
08-03 00:48Will Rafael Leao join Fenerbahce?SELL0.16$16.00
08-03 00:17Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?SELL0.5$2.50
08-02 21:20Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.86$860.00
08-02 18:30Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?SELL0.25$5.00
08-02 13:50Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?SELL0.07$2.45
08-02 06:05Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?SELL0.14$1.09
08-02 02:20Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.48$5.68
08-02 02:12Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?SELL0.46$5.86
08-01 18:13Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.793$249.99
08-01 17:25Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?SELL0.15$7.59
08-01 16:56Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?SELL0.16$6.40
08-01 08:27Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?SELL0.62$186.00
08-01 07:21Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?SELL0.21$21.00
08-01 07:21Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?SELL0.21$21.00