0xbfa90d4b9b032af640f593907b4a2807c9693bdf
- Realised P&L
- $-92.71
- Volume
- $16.9k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $35.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yes | 0.630 | 1.000 | $29.00 | +$10.73 |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $5.95 | −$105.84 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.034 | $0.27 | −$0.85 |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.19 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.24 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.85 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.19 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.79at 0.100Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
- +$47.36at 0.100Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$34.98at 0.460Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28?
- +$32.65at 0.180Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$24.39at 0.440Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 18:26 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $4.44 |
| 04-27 18:11 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.591 | $15.37 |
| 04-27 15:16 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $29.03 |
| 04-27 11:30 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.4 | $26.40 |
| 04-27 10:52 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.4 | $59.37 |
| 04-26 19:21 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.80 |
| 04-08 12:45 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0103990353 | $17.68 |
| 04-08 12:15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.74 |
| 04-08 12:15 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0098641176 | $16.77 |
| 04-08 11:45 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.74 |
| 04-08 11:45 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0095823588 | $16.29 |
| 04-08 11:15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.74 |
| 04-08 11:15 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0086805647 | $14.76 |
| 04-08 10:45 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.74 |
| 04-08 10:45 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0082437529 | $14.01 |