hell0pia
0xbf93328f8b69273453228a82c913207731822fd7
- Realised P&L
- $87.3k
- Volume
- $2.98M
- Markets traded
- 120
- Open portfolio
- $36.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded120
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.615 | 0.625 | $32.0k | +$500.19 |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.363 | 0.368 | $2.0k | +$31.40 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.529 | 0.521 | $1.9k | −$26.60 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.223 | 0.225 | $303.13 | +$3.13 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.025 | $0.08 | −$2.05 |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.20 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.5kat 0.647Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$36.6kat 0.466US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$22.2kat 0.093Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
- +$19.9kat 0.716Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$19.6kat 0.260Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 17:43 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.63 | $16.4k |
| 09-18 21:53 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6 | $13.0k |
| 09-18 20:50 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2226780488 | $300.00 |
| 09-16 14:56 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5288894167 | $1.9k |
| 09-16 14:54 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.3627921818 | $2.0k |
| 09-09 05:20 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | SELL | 0.1525821732 | $423.59 |
| 09-08 20:21 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.7999819894 | $2.2k |
| 09-08 18:17 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.75 |
| 09-08 18:15 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2327987852 | $2.0k |
| 09-01 02:54 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999997 | $500.00 |
| 08-31 22:50 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999965 | $40.00 |
| 08-26 14:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.168203973 | $1000.00 |
| 08-23 22:21 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.709647125 | $1.7k |
| 08-21 17:50 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $409.41 |
| 08-21 01:14 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.6644329885 | $1.4k |