0xbf452050ba498222701c8fc26cdec912a78dc0b6
- Realised P&L
- $8.56
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $68.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.125 | $65.63 | −$2.55 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.160 | $2.74 | −$3.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.06at 0.465Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.65at 0.580Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$0.00at 0.970No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$-1.28at 0.039Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-7.31at 0.373Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 13:21 | Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $54.88 |
| 08-04 14:20 | Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $13.30 |
| 07-31 01:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.45 | $34.65 |
| 01-20 02:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.349999965 | $6.00 |
| 01-20 02:06 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.31 |
| 01-17 16:23 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.5799999923 | $6.00 |
| 01-17 16:22 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.16 | $5.58 |
| 01-13 14:39 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $3.00 |
| 01-13 14:38 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.4 | $3.33 |
| 01-13 06:56 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3799999823 | $9.00 |
| 01-13 06:56 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.034 | $8.72 |
| 01-13 06:55 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 01-12 16:00 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.42 | $1.10 |
| 01-12 15:59 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 01-12 15:57 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0389999963 | $10.00 |