0xbf232ca3d1dfc30508b4a723fbbcc5f28b73f987
0xbf232ca3d1dfc30508b4a723fbbcc5f28b73f987
- Realised P&L
- $-77.08
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $100.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-05 House election by 10%-15%? · No | 0.860 | 0.810 | $16.20 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%? · No | 0.740 | 0.735 | $14.70 | −$0.10 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 0%-3%? · No | 0.825 | 0.725 | $14.50 | −$2.00 |
| Meta (META) Q3 ad impression growth across Family of Apps 10% to 13%? · No | 0.760 | 0.620 | $12.40 | −$2.80 |
| Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%? · No | 0.760 | 0.665 | $12.14 | −$1.73 |
| Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23? · No | 0.760 | 0.605 | $12.10 | −$3.10 |
| Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? · No | 0.630 | 0.400 | $8.00 | −$4.60 |
| Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%? · No | 0.620 | 0.350 | $7.00 | −$5.40 |
| Union Pacific (UNP) Q3 adjusted operating ratio 59% to 60%? · No | 0.760 | 0.560 | $3.03 | −$1.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.00at 0.630Will the US national average gas price be between $4.3000 and $4.3099 on October 18?
- +$1.70at 0.767Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 0%-3%?
- +$0.34at 0.639Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- +$0.00at 0.780Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 10%-15%?
- +$-0.01at 0.620Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 14:58 | Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m? | SELL | 0.63 | $3.23 |
| 10-17 22:49 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25? | SELL | 0.68 | $13.55 |
| 10-17 21:59 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 3%-6%? | SELL | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 10-17 20:44 | Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.7 | $13.99 |
| 10-17 13:53 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.857 | $17.14 |