0x4dF63E746b71d3a8e
0xbf0fd14d47d8d785ac19f33aafa6985501f128ce
- Realised P&L
- $-922.01
- Volume
- $172.7k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $10.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.135 | $9.1k | −$2.6k |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.220 | $1.0k | +$17.58 |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.485 | 0.406 | $331.34 | −$64.26 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.042 | $324.76 | −$150.37 |
| US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$254.55 |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$296.38 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$267.35 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.510Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?
- +$-100.36at 0.492Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 19:15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.0507510881 | $55.39 |
| 07-30 20:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $7.49 |
| 07-30 20:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 07-30 20:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $7.49 |
| 07-30 20:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.1457213118 | $1.7k |
| 07-30 20:55 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.054890948 | $3.08 |
| 07-27 14:35 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.2495454545 | $27.45 |
| 07-27 14:34 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.208144124 | $353.25 |
| 07-27 14:31 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.1914135667 | $270.81 |
| 07-27 14:31 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.249 | $74.70 |
| 07-27 14:31 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.2338403463 | $267.92 |
| 07-27 14:30 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.062393531 | $416.66 |
| 07-27 14:30 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $352.64 |
| 07-27 14:29 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $80.00 |
| 07-27 14:29 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $285.84 |