ApostolicFerret2146
0xbedc34c53c9da47f14d11698b774e676747bf2d6
- Realised P&L
- $-100.42
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $5.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.369 | 0.170 | $3.91 | −$4.57 |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.110 | $1.09 | −$1.89 |
| Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.50 |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline · Lakers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.84at 0.264Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
- +$6.88at 0.570Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event?
- +$6.00at 0.400Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?
- +$5.33at 0.428Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?
- +$5.07at 0.384XRP Up or Down - March 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 01:31 | Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 01:07 | Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 06-08 23:17 | Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.018 | $1.08 |
| 05-02 04:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 04-23 19:19 | Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during healthcare event? | BUY | 0.1799999772 | $5.61 |
| 04-23 19:15 | Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.84 |
| 04-13 16:32 | Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 04-05 05:26 | XRP Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $0.90 |
| 04-05 01:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $0.91 |
| 04-04 19:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $0.93 |
| 04-04 19:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | SELL | 0.06 | $0.25 |
| 04-04 19:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $0.89 |
| 04-04 19:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $0.89 |
| 04-04 19:45 | Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 04-03 03:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.239999856 | $0.89 |