PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

willardjack

0xbeb978ffcfc66e3ca05fe4d3f0aa005bbefb2cd5

Realised P&L
$-2.3k
Volume
$73.7k
Markets traded
1,052
Open portfolio
$520.97

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,052
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.7530.725$196.21−$7.52
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.5620.555$172.17−$2.23
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.8850.875$87.50−$1.00
Will LSU have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes0.6300.685$32.62+$2.62
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.1630.139$20.39−$3.61
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes0.0740.057$8.73−$2.67
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.3200.145$2.27−$2.73
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes0.4440.018$0.42−$9.58
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.5700.032$0.28−$4.72
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes0.7200.029$0.20−$4.80
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1500.029$0.19−$0.81
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET · Up0.4000.000$0.00−$4.00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET · Up0.4000.000$0.00−$4.00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET · Down0.4000.000$0.00−$4.00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET · Up0.4000.000$0.00−$4.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 17:01Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?SELL0.2738899715$36.54
10-26 22:42Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.72$10.79
10-05 02:18Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersBUY0.47$18.80
10-03 19:38Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.71$17.75
10-01 19:44S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2?BUY0.549999945$3.00
10-01 19:27Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in October?BUY0.699999972$5.00
10-01 19:27Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 Week of September 28 2026?BUY0.8201580872$5.00
10-01 18:38S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?SELL0.81$13.37
09-30 20:34S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?BUY0.58$7.54
09-30 20:34Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.57$8.50
09-30 20:33S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?BUY0.5699999886$2.00
09-30 18:04Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of September 28 2026?BUY0.62$12.40
09-30 14:37Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on September 30?BUY0.2076190476$8.72
09-30 03:04Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 28 2026?BUY0.4842960651$45.00
09-30 01:21Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $122.50 Week of September 28 2026?BUY0.59$20.65