0xbea5d6c3bbd1a4e4ffdd40ca865dbdc02508c5bf
- Realised P&L
- $-31.46
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $12.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.140 | 0.825 | $5.89 | +$4.89 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.345 | 0.399 | $3.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.044 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? · No | 0.460 | 0.574 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.007 | $0.12 | −$3.88 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on September 17? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin · Semen Pankin | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.60at 0.230Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET
- +$3.12at 0.110Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
- +$3.07at 0.060Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
- +$2.55at 0.294Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$2.49at 0.506Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:16 | Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? | BUY | 0.1713166869 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 08:11 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 08:03 | OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 06:58 | Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? | BUY | 0.301948048 | $3.00 |
| 09-15 06:56 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | SELL | 0.9815950992 | $8.41 |
| 09-14 14:19 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 12:47 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 07:13 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 00:10 | Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0339999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 23:45 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | BUY | 0.6999999767 | $6.00 |
| 09-12 23:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3449999672 | $3.00 |
| 07-06 20:57 | Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.08 |
| 07-06 15:40 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 21:04 | Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 21:04 | Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |