jaikaal
0xbe8c84a51c6ad0282488d714a0cee1b725c7bf2f
- Realised P&L
- $-0.94
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $11.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.958 | $6.03 | +$0.01 |
| Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.923 | 0.926 | $4.94 | +$0.02 |
| Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.355 | $0.56 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.92at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$4.79at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$3.24at 0.442Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$2.08at 0.371Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28?
- +$1.98at 0.457Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 05:23 | Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.50 |
| 09-16 11:28 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.835 | $5.01 |
| 09-16 11:28 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.901 | $4.87 |
| 09-05 09:26 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $4.84 |
| 08-17 21:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $11.01 |
| 08-15 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.68 |
| 08-15 15:32 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $5.91 |
| 08-15 01:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999504 | $2.60 |
| 08-15 00:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $2.74 |
| 08-14 15:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999857 | $3.28 |
| 08-13 11:51 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $3.43 |
| 08-12 04:45 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999631 | $5.47 |
| 08-11 00:03 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999876 | $2.88 |
| 08-11 00:02 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $3.04 |
| 08-10 15:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.45 |