0xbE447E72F5F02302328F8eC77259441b09eBD10C-1733583994101
0xbe447e72f5f02302328f8ec77259441b09ebd10c
- Realised P&L
- $298.52
- Volume
- $6.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $256.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.065 | $216.67 | +$16.67 |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.035 | $12.08 | +$2.08 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.017 | $9.49 | −$1.51 |
| Paris curfew by October 24? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $7.22 | −$2.78 |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $6.42 | −$3.86 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · No | 0.050 | 0.048 | $4.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.19 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.02at 0.249Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal
- +$88.54at 0.167Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska
- +$11.55at 0.458Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Maria Sakkari
- +$-3.63at 0.856Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 22:35 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.028548155 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 22:33 | Paris curfew by October 24? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 22:14 | Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? | BUY | 0.1200405994 | $10.28 |
| 10-18 22:05 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.0191329541 | $11.00 |
| 10-18 13:44 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $200.00 |
| 10-18 13:43 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 13:41 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal | SELL | 0.999 | $333.00 |
| 10-18 12:13 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $30.00 |
| 10-18 11:25 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 10-16 17:08 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska | BUY | 0.8499999882 | $3.60 |
| 10-16 17:08 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska | BUY | 0.16 | $17.00 |
| 10-15 11:21 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Maria Sakkari | BUY | 0.4453027117 | $9.48 |
| 07-06 20:49 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0659999982 | $33.82 |
| 04-12 18:29 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.08 | $13.19 |