xiaoyua
0xbde327e6873f018f46f2884e95fc98006be02d97
- Realised P&L
- $339.23
- Volume
- $60.7k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $890.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.875 | $520.12 | +$26.75 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.915 | 0.827 | $370.09 | −$39.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$410.28at 0.748Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?
- +$208.61at 0.746Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
- +$205.59at 0.750Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?
- +$83.27at 0.800Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?
- +$45.91at 0.990Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 11:43 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $493.37 |
| 09-13 11:42 | Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.827 | $98.77 |
| 09-13 11:41 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $551.70 |
| 07-26 00:38 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.981 | $164.81 |
| 07-15 02:56 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9868176059 | $163.56 |
| 07-15 02:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.961 | $576.60 |
| 07-01 01:27 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9888113728 | $734.69 |
| 07-01 01:26 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $735.26 |
| 06-13 11:33 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $728.64 |
| 06-05 06:14 | Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9079598115 | $102.12 |
| 05-28 15:11 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | BUY | 0.985 | $823.35 |
| 05-25 11:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | BUY | 0.998 | $823.09 |
| 05-06 13:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | BUY | 0.996 | $820.70 |
| 04-27 00:52 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? | BUY | 0.999 | $409.99 |
| 04-20 07:09 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $407.99 |