0xbdce9b40f42a2c5a00aa5f948a0a217003b78c44
0xbdce9b40f42a2c5a00aa5f948a0a217003b78c44
- Realised P&L
- $-7.10
- Volume
- $197.99
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $7.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.995 | $2.01 | +$0.43 |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.735 | $1.44 | +$0.44 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.245 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.785 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in September? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.500 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.500 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$5.69at 0.260Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
- +$2.20at 0.482Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?
- +$1.84at 0.520Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.66at 0.552Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 22:52 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:48 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:59 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 12:55 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 03:44 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:55 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:55 | Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:55 | Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:55 | Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 00:47 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 16:03 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 05:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 20:33 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |