2Sherlock
0xbd81954a4ebce3a843feb3fc6ebf439cf1c6006d
- Realised P&L
- $3.5k
- Volume
- $108.8k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.391Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.784EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$516.71at 0.0690 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$485.24at 0.319Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?
- +$271.40at 0.519Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 15:20 | Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $116.84 |
| 10-08 15:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3834681182 | $24.66 |
| 10-07 17:38 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? | BUY | 0.029 | $2.15 |
| 10-07 17:38 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? | BUY | 0.029 | $50.00 |
| 10-07 09:42 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.2287644046 | $3.57 |
| 10-07 09:35 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9794720438 | $411.67 |
| 10-04 08:46 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $31.78 |
| 10-02 23:36 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.874 | $174.80 |
| 10-02 23:33 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.999 | $55.94 |
| 10-02 18:05 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.994 | $340.94 |
| 09-30 21:43 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.4390557129 | $23.25 |
| 09-30 20:14 | Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9532408988 | $97.14 |
| 09-30 19:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.3575003646 | $24.51 |
| 09-30 19:10 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.5k |
| 09-30 14:14 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $251.00 |