Hdbeh655
0xbcfe65402a38e281affe94770381f19eb061ee58
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $88.9k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.737 | 0.895 | $2.2k | +$388.26 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.635 | 0.475 | $906.49 | −$305.88 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.655 | 0.645 | $645.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.369 | $554.03 | −$519.45 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.799 | $405.80 | −$30.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.909Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$232.94at 0.834Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
- +$113.99at 0.978US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
- +$57.36at 0.885Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.05at 0.590Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 17:16 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.412 | $106.88 |
| 10-18 12:47 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.7759583333 | $186.23 |
| 10-18 12:47 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.780015873 | $491.41 |
| 10-18 02:52 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.5401158394 | $283.67 |
| 10-13 13:54 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $25.50 |
| 10-13 13:53 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $144.50 |
| 10-13 13:53 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $56.91 |
| 10-13 13:52 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $30.96 |
| 10-13 13:51 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 10-13 13:49 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $8.80 |
| 10-12 07:53 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 10-12 07:52 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $21.87 |
| 10-12 07:52 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $21.87 |
| 10-12 00:13 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $189.98 |
| 10-11 06:39 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9590550242 | $93.25 |