WhimsyBird
0xbcb6cbc04b15857a54f592322c4106b08976b74b
- Realised P&L
- $-66.37
- Volume
- $38.5k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $71.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.25at 0.304Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
- +$95.64at 0.353Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
- +$39.86at 0.321Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- +$38.75at 0.048Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$30.50at 0.237Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 22:03 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.0622039286 | $17.42 |
| 09-14 17:42 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%? | BUY | 0.0728848442 | $2.08 |
| 09-14 17:40 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.08 |
| 09-13 22:07 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.18 | $50.40 |
| 09-13 20:42 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.79 |
| 09-13 20:41 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.72 |
| 09-13 20:04 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 19:21 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.58 |
| 09-13 19:01 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%? | BUY | 0.2547843533 | $8.83 |
| 09-13 19:00 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%? | BUY | 0.0576957253 | $9.26 |
| 09-13 18:58 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.160792873 | $74.81 |
| 09-13 18:39 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.128686114 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 18:37 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.1789616449 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 09:17 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 20:26 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $1.00 |