Karlutxo
0xbc5dd5b1c3d09ebfbf226f249f7113535baf6116
- Realised P&L
- $-38.29
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $18.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.460 | 0.435 | $4.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $3.67 | −$1.23 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.086 | $2.14 | +$0.19 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.190 | $1.89 | −$0.45 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.080 | $1.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.009 | $1.23 | −$0.07 |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.135 | $1.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.049 | $0.97 | −$0.23 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.005 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No | 0.110 | 0.065 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.34at 0.400Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.96at 0.452Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-27?
- +$5.22at 0.640Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$5.10at 0.605Will Leavitt say "Economy" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$4.91at 0.691Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 08:10 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.90 |
| 07-20 12:13 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 12:12 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 12:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2779998226 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:06 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 16:32 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4 | $7.00 |
| 07-17 16:31 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.58 | $6.70 |
| 07-16 09:01 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.64199999 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 17:35 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5299997376 | $2.00 |
| 07-15 17:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4189999388 | $2.00 |
| 07-15 17:27 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.24 |
| 07-14 20:22 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.60 |
| 07-12 08:00 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.199 | $5.33 |
| 07-12 07:59 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5799999014 | $2.00 |