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Traders

redoak4444

0xbc4beb9ef1eb6890e96ccdf08486d777fedca0dd

Realised P&L
$-1.5k
Volume
$219.8k
Markets traded
218
Open portfolio
$16.31

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded218
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration64.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
China coup attempt before 2027? · Yes0.0380.041$10.55+$0.55
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1060.053$2.53$2.47
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1680.027$1.61$8.39
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1400.045$0.97$2.02
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.1500.029$0.57$2.43
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0180.002$0.08$0.92
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$3.00
Pistons vs. Pacers · Pacers0.2200.000$0.00$1.00
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00$1.00
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? · Yes0.0580.000$0.00$1.00
Will India win? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$1.00
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) · Timberwolves0.5160.000$0.00$20.00
Jazz vs. Warriors · Jazz0.1400.000$0.00$1.00
Ball State vs. Toledo · Ball State0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
Samford vs. Texas A&M · Samford0.0070.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 16:48Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4129999982$93.98
07-18 01:06Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4059999988$100.00
07-15 18:43Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1969999872$11.00
03-09 02:48Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1057692125$5.00
03-09 02:47Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?BUY0.1187060835$5.00
03-09 02:47Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?BUY0.02$3.00
03-09 02:46Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?BUY0.0836653313$10.00
03-09 02:46Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?BUY0.0576337294$10.00
02-01 08:23Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY0.15$3.00
02-01 08:19US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?BUY0.0579999464$1.00
02-01 08:18US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?BUY0.05$1.00
01-26 07:54Will the US strike Somalia next?BUY0.001$2.00
01-24 17:08Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?SELL0.41$2.08
01-23 03:04Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?SELL0.81$1.02
01-23 03:03China coup attempt before 2027?BUY0.038393427$10.00
Trader redoak4444 · PolyBot Pro