redoak4444
0xbc4beb9ef1eb6890e96ccdf08486d777fedca0dd
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $219.8k
- Markets traded
- 218
- Open portfolio
- $16.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded218
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China coup attempt before 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.041 | $10.55 | +$0.55 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.053 | $2.53 | −$2.47 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.027 | $1.61 | −$8.39 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.045 | $0.97 | −$2.02 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.029 | $0.57 | −$2.43 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.002 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Pistons vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will India win? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) · Timberwolves | 0.516 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Jazz vs. Warriors · Jazz | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Ball State vs. Toledo · Ball State | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Samford vs. Texas A&M · Samford | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.00at 0.150Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$11.92at 0.370Nothing Ever Happens: January
- +$11.45at 0.490Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
- +$8.09at 0.110Nets vs. Celtics
- +$6.69at 0.130Bulls vs. Nuggets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 16:48 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4129999982 | $93.98 |
| 07-18 01:06 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4059999988 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 18:43 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1969999872 | $11.00 |
| 03-09 02:48 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1057692125 | $5.00 |
| 03-09 02:47 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1187060835 | $5.00 |
| 03-09 02:47 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $3.00 |
| 03-09 02:46 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.0836653313 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 02:46 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BUY | 0.0576337294 | $10.00 |
| 02-01 08:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 02-01 08:19 | US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0579999464 | $1.00 |
| 02-01 08:18 | US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 01-26 07:54 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 01-24 17:08 | Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | SELL | 0.41 | $2.08 |
| 01-23 03:04 | Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.02 |
| 01-23 03:03 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.038393427 | $10.00 |