evaphil
0xbc2b458aa13706897c9926f0fa95aed696d19c41
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $18.1k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $209.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.974 | $58.29 | +$0.24 |
| Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.952 | 0.950 | $53.20 | −$0.11 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.964 | $52.06 | −$0.70 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.947 | 0.869 | $46.03 | −$4.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$727.92at 0.460Phillies vs. Brewers
- +$505.00at 0.500XRP Up or Down on July 1?
- +$491.96at 0.510Giants vs. Diamondbacks
- +$483.11at 0.599Mariners vs. Athletics
- +$475.00at 0.470Celtics vs. Raptors
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 08:50 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $57.94 |
| 12-19 13:09 | Celtics vs. Raptors | BUY | 0.47 | $421.23 |
| 09-04 10:12 | Phillies vs. Brewers | BUY | 0.46 | $620.08 |
| 06-30 10:37 | XRP Up or Down on July 1? | BUY | 0.5 | $505.00 |
| 06-26 08:36 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? | BUY | 0.5 | $518.00 |
| 05-26 13:41 | Thunder vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.57 | $560.88 |
| 05-07 07:27 | Mariners vs. Athletics | BUY | 0.599116842 | $722.00 |