endangered.species
0xbc1dcd7b21793ebbced7ab780c3b00d6a356e2ff
- Realised P&L
- $9.5k
- Volume
- $158.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $9.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.769 | 0.825 | $4.4k | +$298.08 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.789 | 0.835 | $2.1k | +$115.28 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · No | 0.767 | 0.885 | $818.63 | +$109.02 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? · No | 0.860 | 0.945 | $633.75 | +$56.76 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? · No | 0.915 | 0.940 | $595.02 | +$15.58 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.205 | $410.00 | +$30.00 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.375 | $375.00 | +$79.14 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · Yes | 0.250 | 0.130 | $260.00 | −$240.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.852Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.814Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.1kat 0.850Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.770Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$1.1kat 0.660Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 13:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $850.00 |
| 09-10 09:11 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $207.39 |
| 09-10 09:08 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | SELL | 0.9485090225 | $269.65 |
| 09-10 09:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.987 | $0.97 |
| 09-10 09:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.987 | $3.0k |
| 09-07 13:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $1.8k |
| 09-04 17:45 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 09-04 17:44 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $65.45 |
| 09-04 06:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.5k |
| 09-03 21:21 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | SELL | 0.7713333333 | $57.85 |
| 09-03 20:56 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2958596 | $295.86 |
| 09-01 20:59 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $141.81 |
| 09-01 20:52 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799444797 | $564.73 |
| 08-31 14:47 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $217.50 |
| 08-31 14:44 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.9198 | $229.95 |