MichaelMorrison9717
0xbb2e2a10f2862546fa5acadf670b88cc566b7c01
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $230.3k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $276.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.151 | $148.32 | −$647.61 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.455 | $39.13 | −$4.73 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? · No | 0.830 | 1.000 | $38.00 | +$6.46 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.045 | $26.28 | −$119.72 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $25.00 | +$5.00 |
| Ledger IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.040 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$574.26at 0.470Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$449.80at 0.522Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
- +$339.82at 0.126Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$205.48at 0.560St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars
- +$161.28at 0.130Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 10:05 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.83 | $6.64 |
| 04-27 10:03 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.82 | $396.06 |
| 04-09 16:04 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.83 | $439.07 |
| 04-09 11:57 | Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.85 | $17.85 |
| 04-09 11:15 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.65 |
| 04-09 11:14 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $37.65 |
| 04-09 11:13 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $61.35 |
| 04-09 11:11 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $68.70 |
| 04-09 11:10 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $69.60 |
| 04-09 11:08 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $91.05 |
| 04-09 11:08 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.55 |
| 04-09 10:54 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | SELL | 0.77 | $5.39 |
| 04-07 12:59 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $25.60 |
| 03-16 20:40 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $43.86 |
| 03-15 12:30 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $321.58 |