0xbafa27f182bcca4a93b0f5740fa2883a5b85a0b0
0xbafa27f182bcca4a93b0f5740fa2883a5b85a0b0
- Realised P&L
- $-129.96
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $82.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.135 | $37.32 | −$1.38 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.021 | $24.26 | −$12.71 |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.040 | $14.21 | −$31.83 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.315 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.715 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.813 | 0.840 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.700 | 0.705 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.161 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.755 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.072 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.59at 0.201Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$5.58at 0.133Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.14at 0.348Will Paul Seixas finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?
- +$-1.82at 0.324Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-15.04at 0.384Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:41 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8129995374 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 10:23 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 10:22 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:37 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 16:35 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1629999821 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 14:34 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 14:34 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | BUY | 0.0859999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 06:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.65 |
| 10-24 15:43 | Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026? | SELL | 0.0015812638 | $2.22 |
| 10-11 19:17 | Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | SELL | 0.0031450116 | $0.43 |
| 10-09 05:29 | Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $17.93 |
| 10-01 16:23 | Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026? | BUY | 0.0646613447 | $48.74 |
| 10-01 04:37 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1279630669 | $46.04 |
| 10-01 04:36 | Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026? | BUY | 0.07672257 | $50.02 |
| 08-16 20:28 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1399999971 | $38.70 |