ergodiclab
0xba4185e83985279220e74127124146a39d5be9ab
- Realised P&L
- $-9.00
- Volume
- $315.00
- Markets traded
- 3
- Open portfolio
- $205.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded3
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration96.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.779 | 0.990 | $198.00 | +$42.25 |
| Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? · No | 0.180 | 0.500 | $7.50 | +$4.80 |
| Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 6.1 or more? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 12:30 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.77875 | $155.75 |
| 10-12 23:24 | Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.70 |