axelotl
0xba2152cf7f0769c7acc65d7761454580faf3881c
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $307.8k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $12.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.130US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.260US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
- +$980.00at 0.720US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$796.95at 0.630US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$600.00at 0.700MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 10:55 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.04 | $147.15 |
| 10-28 10:50 | Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.005 | $13.09 |
| 10-28 09:33 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.03938 | $98.45 |
| 10-28 08:48 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.13 |
| 10-28 08:15 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0268863346 | $209.71 |
| 10-28 08:03 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.90 |
| 10-28 08:02 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $8.85 |
| 10-28 08:02 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.90 |
| 10-28 08:02 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $8.59 |
| 10-28 08:00 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.247 | $271.22 |
| 10-28 07:59 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.246 | $53.45 |
| 10-28 07:58 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.5k |
| 10-28 07:57 | Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.003 | $12.58 |
| 10-28 07:57 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.27 |
| 10-28 07:48 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.45 | $18.00 |