0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680
0xb9d89bef8c935082f6a86355bd9667402d92275a
- Realised P&L
- $48.2k
- Volume
- $2.80M
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $987.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.876 | 0.982 | $383.1k | +$41.3k |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.908 | 0.945 | $319.5k | +$12.6k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.906 | 0.945 | $231.5k | +$9.4k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.805 | 0.981 | $34.7k | +$6.2k |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.695 | $7.0k | +$950.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.291 | 0.525 | $5.4k | +$2.4k |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.525 | $5.2k | +$2.3k |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.705 | $722.76 | +$107.64 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.0kat 0.932Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$13.6kat 0.943Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$3.7kat 0.945Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$3.3kat 0.970Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.939Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 19:36 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.0k |
| 10-08 02:45 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $12.1k |
| 09-17 21:14 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $14.3k |
| 05-11 02:41 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.929 | $17.0k |
| 05-11 02:40 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.998 | $60.9k |
| 05-09 04:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 04:44 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 05:56 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.9k |
| 05-01 05:55 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.997 | $46.2k |
| 04-30 22:57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $49.9k |
| 04-30 22:54 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $51.9k |
| 04-30 21:47 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $18.7k |
| 04-23 05:06 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.986 | $18.3k |
| 04-10 23:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9598419269 | $33.7k |
| 04-10 20:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $4.9k |