PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Manchild

0xb9a74e3170401e578b1b9c8fabb49b05462ef50f

Realised P&L
$918.88
Volume
$130.4k
Markets traded
342
Open portfolio
$4.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded342
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings? · Yes0.4170.925$790.08+$433.67
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes0.0810.080$612.92−$11.31
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? · No0.4470.740$483.42+$191.48
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? · No0.7170.675$291.60−$18.24
Will Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? · No0.3480.997$252.15+$163.97
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0600.057$242.66−$14.49
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0410.041$237.94−$2.10
Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4300.945$208.05+$113.29
Will Magomed Ankalaev become UFC champion in 2026? · No0.6220.934$178.11+$59.49
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4500.475$142.50+$7.50
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? · No0.5800.885$88.50+$30.50
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.6800.565$85.88−$17.48
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7720.917$76.50+$12.14
Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? · Yes0.3560.966$46.44+$29.34
Will Belal Muhammad become UFC champion in 2026? · No0.6980.500$40.09−$15.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 02:20Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.0538690819$194.53
10-31 02:19Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0609539067$365.72
10-31 02:17Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.058$35.78
10-31 02:17Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.057$51.67
10-30 18:34Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.04$112.02
10-30 18:33Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.002$10.00
10-30 14:12Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?BUY0.038$1.41
10-30 14:10Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?BUY0.01$6.02
10-30 14:10Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?BUY0.019$13.78
10-17 21:59Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?BUY0.72$224.64
10-04 01:46Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.9443333333$28.33
09-26 16:24Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.042$82.93
09-26 16:23Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.002$4.00
09-20 01:56Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.3497531474$14.17
09-20 01:56Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.3466414368$10.81