Manchild
0xb9a74e3170401e578b1b9c8fabb49b05462ef50f
- Realised P&L
- $918.88
- Volume
- $130.4k
- Markets traded
- 342
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded342
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$764.85at 0.524Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$495.00at 0.500Big Game: Coin Toss
- +$427.66at 0.195UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$405.84at 0.594Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$403.18at 0.194Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 02:20 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0538690819 | $194.53 |
| 10-31 02:19 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0609539067 | $365.72 |
| 10-31 02:17 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.058 | $35.78 |
| 10-31 02:17 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.057 | $51.67 |
| 10-30 18:34 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.04 | $112.02 |
| 10-30 18:33 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 14:12 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.038 | $1.41 |
| 10-30 14:10 | Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.01 | $6.02 |
| 10-30 14:10 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan? | BUY | 0.019 | $13.78 |
| 10-17 21:59 | Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? | BUY | 0.72 | $224.64 |
| 10-04 01:46 | Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9443333333 | $28.33 |
| 09-26 16:24 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.042 | $82.93 |
| 09-26 16:23 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 09-20 01:56 | Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3497531474 | $14.17 |
| 09-20 01:56 | Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3466414368 | $10.81 |