ChanceD6
0xb9a554e689721c4ba36aba8425c9edcab7f3a2b9
- Realised P&L
- $-27.43
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $0.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on November 3? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.52 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? · No | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 9°C or below on October 27? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? · No | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.39at 0.366Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
- +$1.42at 0.720Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
- +$0.52at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$0.47at 0.630Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$0.24at 0.701Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:59 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on November 3? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.44 |
| 10-27 02:04 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 9°C or below on October 27? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 06:23 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.14 |
| 10-24 06:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.17 |
| 10-24 06:23 | Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.10 |
| 10-09 07:17 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 10-09 07:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 10-09 07:02 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 10-09 07:01 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 10-09 06:53 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 10-09 06:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 10-07 03:10 | Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $1.13 |
| 09-28 02:18 | Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | BUY | 0.0489999982 | $1.00 |