btsproof
0xb976b1cf4006189198c31726a3196680f82dc213
- Realised P&L
- $-965.11
- Volume
- $136.4k
- Markets traded
- 153
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded153
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? · SpaceX | 0.728 | 0.722 | $1.1k | −$9.90 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.259 | 0.856 | $216.44 | +$150.91 |
| ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Sri Lanka | 0.790 | 0.490 | $202.86 | −$124.20 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.975 | $96.48 | +$20.25 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · No | 0.570 | 0.765 | $2.29 | +$0.58 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? · No | 0.500 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.50 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? · No | 0.700 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.30 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$602.14at 0.230Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?
- +$582.28at 0.211Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$571.20at 0.200Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?
- +$440.70at 0.670Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$420.00at 0.300Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 09:12 | Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $42.00 |
| 04-27 09:11 | Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $103.40 |
| 04-27 08:04 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $219.78 |
| 04-27 07:57 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $219.12 |
| 04-23 11:43 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $452.20 |
| 04-23 08:49 | Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $159.94 |
| 04-12 01:23 | Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $98.28 |
| 04-11 09:16 | Will "Ninja" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.22 | $145.86 |
| 04-11 09:15 | Will "Ninja" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.22 | $148.50 |
| 04-11 02:20 | Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $110.76 |
| 04-11 01:22 | Will "Ninja" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | BUY | 0.5 | $669.00 |
| 04-09 11:47 | Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.96 |
| 04-09 11:45 | Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.015 | $7.35 |
| 04-09 11:05 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $37.65 |
| 04-09 10:11 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $402.28 |