amundsen-scott
0xb962a0c671ac69a294d6f36e38d229b6b7f2a069
- Realised P&L
- $-3.3k
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $219.74
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.720 | 0.835 | $83.50 | +$11.50 |
| Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? · No | 0.749 | 0.445 | $61.50 | −$42.00 |
| Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? · Yes | 0.798 | 0.225 | $56.12 | −$142.85 |
| Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? · Yes | 0.363 | 0.130 | $18.62 | −$33.36 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? · Yes | 0.774 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.39at 0.984No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$-31.61at 0.036Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
- +$-1.3kat 0.082Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 19:35 | Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $98.97 |
| 07-26 19:31 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.981 | $99.79 |
| 07-25 08:40 | Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? | BUY | 0.3661894118 | $48.78 |
| 07-25 08:40 | Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? | BUY | 0.7507270191 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 08:40 | Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? | BUY | 0.7954658447 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 08:38 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9829999977 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 08:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $72.00 |
| 07-25 08:32 | Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 07-25 08:31 | Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 04-30 04:47 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | BUY | 0.4699999957 | $12.99 |
| 04-30 04:46 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | SELL | 0.0106125849 | $12.99 |
| 04-29 10:33 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | BUY | 0.7805608381 | $975.92 |
| 04-29 10:21 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | SELL | 0.76 | $40.39 |
| 04-29 09:02 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | BUY | 0.7655831058 | $516.56 |
| 04-29 07:56 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | BUY | 0.0364282553 | $44.60 |