fakwar
0xb94a65cbe182a6e75adfe6cc583b2e394800a623
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $140.9k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.845 | $640.15 | +$140.15 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.785 | $157.00 | −$7.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.715 | $143.00 | +$9.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.315 | $112.45 | +$12.44 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.640 | $89.60 | +$26.60 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? · Yes | 0.715 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$161.00 |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage · Xtreme Gaming | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.695 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage · BetBoom Team | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$320.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.157Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?
- +$892.74at 0.663Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?
- +$703.08at 0.810US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$667.42at 0.745Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
- +$664.63at 0.698Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 13:34 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $60.90 |
| 10-04 13:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $134.00 |
| 10-04 12:10 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.45 | $63.00 |
| 10-04 10:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $164.00 |
| 10-03 14:07 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699122222 | $24.29 |
| 10-03 13:32 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $14.82 |
| 09-29 16:06 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5569936 | $556.99 |
| 09-28 12:09 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $540.00 |
| 09-20 20:59 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.098999676 | $82.50 |
| 09-20 02:07 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.4389999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 03:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.73 | $521.42 |
| 09-07 14:59 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.3599999994 | $300.00 |
| 09-04 11:44 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6999999999 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 12:32 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs | SELL | 0.0625194412 | $8.68 |
| 08-20 11:02 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.5399999968 | $75.00 |