PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xb86ed0ed452bace4ed432980ae6426e3b8071810

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
210
Open portfolio
$772.34

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded210
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration95.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2710.165$737.92−$475.07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3600.325$27.08−$2.92
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? · Yes0.1130.100$5.31−$0.69
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9650.993$2.02+$0.06
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5 · Over0.7600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 7? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$2.45
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina? · No0.9000.000$0.00−$21.00
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 13? · Yes0.3100.000$0.00−$4.62
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$4.66
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00−$4.42
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals · No0.4800.000$0.00−$50.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET · Up0.6100.000$0.00−$3.05
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 13? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$2.17
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 13? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$3.21

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 01:29Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.309999998$83.00
07-24 01:28US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.7$82.35
07-21 02:59US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6799999993$80.00
07-21 02:58Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.2699999998$800.00
07-20 22:57Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?BUY0.1129976086$6.00
07-20 22:00Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.2699999994$300.00
07-18 21:40Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?BUY0.9288923679$700.00
07-18 21:33Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsBUY0.4799999981$50.00
07-18 21:24Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsBUY0.1899999975$50.00
07-18 21:21France vs. England: Team to WinSELL0.72$847.06
07-18 21:13France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.5099999997$600.00
07-18 21:13France vs. England: Team to WinSELL0.49$96.07
07-18 21:12France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.5099999985$100.00
07-18 21:08France vs. England: Team to WinSELL0.47$606.45
07-18 20:57Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsBUY0.1199999975$40.00