0xB81671b00D8Da96f957901892C09837F1361056f-1773141450005
0xb81671b00d8da96f957901892c09837f1361056f
- Realised P&L
- $32.10
- Volume
- $720.36
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $57.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.420 | 1.000 | $47.62 | +$27.62 |
| Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.190 | $9.95 | −$15.05 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET · Up | 0.727 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET · Down | 0.324 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET · Down | 0.708 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.50at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.29at 0.700Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$1.09at 0.477Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
- +$0.34at 0.747Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
- +$-8.73at 0.270Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 13:44 | Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | SELL | 0.0339459459 | $1.26 |
| 04-16 10:39 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0349999669 | $1.00 |
| 04-07 13:52 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4199999933 | $20.00 |
| 04-07 13:52 | Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? | BUY | 0.4699999932 | $24.21 |
| 04-07 13:49 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0919999918 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 13:49 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1359999897 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 13:49 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 03-27 01:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | BUY | 0.719999856 | $0.98 |
| 03-27 00:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $0.98 |
| 03-25 13:18 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 03-22 02:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $0.98 |
| 03-17 14:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.74 | $0.98 |
| 03-14 12:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $2.07 |
| 03-13 16:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $0.97 |